Understanding Valuation, and Future Market Predictions

Dear Subscribers

We are pleased to bring you the latest insights from our recent Token Metrics Premium Webinar. Our primary focus remains to provide objective analyses and informed perspectives for our valued audience.

Market Overview and Key Insights

In this session, we closely examined several critical aspects of the current crypto market landscape. Here's a detailed rundown of our discussion points:

Spacemesh vs. Kaspa

We delved into an in-depth analysis comparing Spacemesh with Kaspa. Our assessment highlighted that Spacemesh seems mispriced relative to Kaspa. We anticipate the market making adjustments to Spacemesh's valuation to bring it in line with Kaspa, and we recommend revisiting this hypothesis every three to six months to evaluate forward progress for long-term investments.

Strategy on Altcoins

For our analysis of altcoins, particularly low-cap ones, we emphasized the need for a differentiated approach compared to larger-cap coins. Shiba Inu was used as a case study to underscore the unpredictability of the crypto market.

Potential of Neon and GameSwift

Our review of Neon suggested that a lack of developer growth could signal stagnation, impacting its forward progress. For Gameswift, we assessed its fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $208 million and noted potential dilution based on its tokenomics.

Price Trajectory and Sell Pressure

The upcoming unlock of 150 million tokens for Spacemesh was highlighted as a factor that could lead to sell pressure over the next three months. Currently, a lack of liquidity prevents immediate investor sell-offs. Changes in the vesting schedule for these tokens were discussed, suggesting a potential bullish outcome in the longer term.

Recommendations for Al and Real-World Asset Tokens

We provided categorized recommendations for Al and real-world asset tokens, spanning large-cap, mid-cap, and low- cap options, while also introducing new trader indicators and signals, as well as a more sophisticated price prediction model and market page.

Comparative Valuations: IoTex and Minima

Our comparative valuation analysis covered loTex and Minima, with the suggestion that loTex might see a valuation uplift if Peaq performs well. Both tokens were considered as potential hedges towards a Peaq investment, noting loTex's solid technology and Minima's decent technical investors.

Specific Token Insights

We shared insights on various tokens:

• Karrat: Evaluated its FDV, base case, and moon case.
• Alepium: Explored its potential to become the next Kaspa.
• Spacemesh: Highlighted its promising fundamentals, including tokenomics and exchange listings.
• Parcl: Reviewed its underperformance and potential investment cases.

General Strategy: Focus on Spacemesh

Our personal strategy includes buying and holding Spacemesh, recognizing its potential as the next Casper due to its low cap, strong technology, and increasing liquidity.

Market Movements and Liquidity

We discussed the importance of understanding spread and depth to assess an asset's liquidity and the utility of OTC desks in trading large asset amounts without disturbing market prices. Our market sentiment since June 8 has been bearish, prompting a "risk off" approach. Our outlook projects a possible market top in 2026, but we emphasize reliance on real-time data over long-term predictions.

Value Investing in Crypto

We examined the principles of value investing in the context of cryptocurrency, comparing Spacemesh and Casper Labs.

Current Market Trends

Finally, we discussed the current state of meme coins like Popcat, Mogcoin, and Ponke, and shared insights into their trading indicators and volume. The performance of specific cryptocurrencies on exchanges such as Bybit and crypto.com was also reviewed.

We remain cautiously optimistic about the market and suggest monitoring projects like Initia and Catalyst for future opportunities. The potential of Mint Layer, a BTC layer 2 project, was highlighted due to its low market cap and trading volume.

Thank you for joining us in this webinar. Your engagement and feedback are invaluable to us.

Best regards,

The Token Metrics Team

• Sector – Restaking
• Status – Active
• TVL – $1.26B